FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
November 30, 2001
Contact: David Sundstrom
Fiscal Impact Analysis:
"The Orange County Central Park and Nature Preserve Initiative"
Santa Ana - Today Auditor-Controller
David E. Sundstrom filed with the Board of Supervisors
a report on the fiscal impact of the Central Park Initiative
that is being considered for placement on the March 5
ballot. The report was requested by the County Board of
Supervisors on September 11, in conformance with Section
9111 of the State of California Elections Code. The consulting
firm Public Financial Management (PFM) prepared the report
on the Auditor Controller's behalf and presents what Sundstrom
believes "to be a fair and objective analysis of the fiscal
impacts stemming from the initiative."
PFM is a national consulting firm headquartered in Philadelphia
with a local office in Newport Beach. They were selected
for the analysis after an open Request for Proposal process
based on the objectivity and thoroughness of their proposal.
PFM staff on this project, experienced in financial impact
analyses, previously worked on the proposed breakup of
the City of Los Angeles and the expansion of the Los Angeles
International Airport. To add to their objectivity, a
senior consultant in their Philadelphia office was assigned
to oversee the analysis as an extra review function to
ensure the validity of assumptions and conclusions.
To further increase the level of objectivity in the analysis
of many complex issues surrounding the Initiative, the
report was subjected to several reviews by both supporters
and opponents, as well as County staff, to gain their
feedback on accuracy of material included in the analysis.
This review process involved two drafts of the report
and resulted in more than 300 comments that were considered
by PFM and Sundstrom.
Although Sundstrom doesn't expect the supporters and opponents
of the Initiative to be in complete agreement with the
final report, he believes they were given ample opportunity
to provide input and express concerns. According to Sundstrom,
many changes were made during this review process to enhance
the accuracy and validity of the report. "I believe that
as a result of the entire process, we have a report that
focuses on the substance of the Initiative and not the
opinions or interpretations of advocates on either side
of the issues," said Sundstrom.
Because the Initiative does not set forth a specific use
for the El Toro facility, but instead restricts development
to a range of potential uses, the report identifies the
likely types of development that could occur. Based on
these potential types of development, the report makes
the following findings:
The initiative would prohibit the development of
a commercial airport at El Toro.
The initiative does not mandate, nor provide funds
for, any specific uses at El Toro.
The specific developments identified in the City
of Irvine "Great Park" proposal are not
part of the initiative and would not necessarily occur
as a result of its passage
The most substantive economic impacts on the region
and County government would be the loss of a commercial
The economic activity that would result from any
development permitted by the Initiative would be relatively
minimal.Under the development scenario described in
this report, average annual County spending is projected
to increase slightly less than $2 million over the
first 20 years, and would compete for other spending
priorities subject to Board of Supervisors' approval.
The Initiative does not impose a new tax or tax
increase. This can only be done by a vote of the electorate.
Any development resulting from the Initiative would
occur over a relatively long timeframe.
Any development allowed by the initiative may result
in continued County spending at El Toro.
It is unlikely that the initiative would result
in additional environmental remediation costs, although
passage would result in supplemental environmental
While not yet determined, it is likely that the
County could avoid any land acquisition cost under
a park or an airport development scenario.